Community Mobilization

Forecast for the Next 25 Years

The World Future Society tends to put out exceptional long range trends. The most recent list is interesting in so many was as it looks into a mix of positive and negative trends. The ecological impact of our ways are apparent in the trends; a mass extinction, floods, and peak water. The continued scientific advancements appear in terms of textiles, computer enhanced decision making, and a healthier population. Read on and go to the World Future Society site to see some analysis.

Forecast #1: The world will have a billion millionaires by 2025.

Forecast #2: Fashion will go wired as technologies and tastes converge to revolutionize the textile industry.

Forecast #3: The threat of another cold war with China, Russia, or both could replace terrorism as the chief foreign-policy concern of the United States.

Forecast #4: Counterfeiting of currency will proliferate, driving the move toward a cashless society.

Forecast #5: The earth is on the verge of a significant extinction event

Forecast #6: Water will be in the twenty-first century what oil was in the twentieth century.

Forecast #7: World population by 2050 may grow larger than previously expected, due in part to healthier, longer-living people.

Forecast #8: The number of Africans imperiled by floods will grow 70-fold by 2080.

Forecast #9: Rising prices for natural resources could lead to a full-scale rush to develop the Arctic.

Forecast #10: More decisions will be made by nonhuman entities.

Even the French are Futuring

I just read that the French government is launching a foresight initiative called "France 2025".
The objective of the initiative (I am roughly translating) is to produce a strategic diagnostic for the next 15 years, describing the different possible futures for France, defining the means to seize the best business opportunities and limit risks of more threatening scenarios.

During several months, parliamentarians, social partners, senior servants, experts and civil representatives will work on 8 major issues for the future of France: globalisation and its consequences; organization of the productive workforce; developing France's innovative and creative capabilities; protection against new risks; social cohesion; limited resource management; impact of technology on daily life; and the future of the State and public services.

Fitness on your Cellphone

Computational power continues to shrink and the eventual reality is that  our computing devices will follow suit. To a point we will be able to cram a movie theater, a home stereo a camera and a telephone into one ... But even more important is when we begin to include our health monitoring devices into the cellphone / smart phone package. The Micoach is a all in one device in conjunction with Adidas that incorporates fitness training programs into a fully loaded cell phone. The brains of the system is a Samsung phone that gets linked to a pair of shoes through rfid or blue tooth for tracking exercise. Available only in Europe at this point, look for Micoach and other integrated devices to help keep us healthier longer.

Meme Box- a Future Scanning Project

MemeBox is a great futures scanning toll launched by a friend of mine Alvis Brigis. MemeBox is a collective space for people to drop in clippings of the future, and it is a great resource for people looking to expand their horizons and thinking.

Teen Communication Modality - A Look Forward

They say you can take a good guess about the future by looking at those who will be in charge then, and if that holds the Pew study on Teens and Social Media is pretty  telling. It focuses on the fact that social media gained a greater foothold in teen life as they embrace the conversational nature of interactive online media. the study found that 39% of online teens share their own artistic creations online such as artwork, photos stories, or videos. They are creating a culture and location of sharing work unlike anything mass media could ever have dreamed.

Even more telling is that girls (who we knew communicated more than boys) are taking it online too. Girls continue to dominate most elements of content creation. Some 35% of all teen girls blog, compared with 20% of online boys, and 54% of wired girls post photos online compared with 40% of online boys. And the most interesting statistic to me is HOW the teens are communicating when they communicate. Social portals and networks WAY out pace face to face (duh - we have global friendships now) but face to face is higher than e-mail. The killer app is dying! Amazing. Asked about the communication they have every day with their friends, the multi-channel teens say:

70% talk daily with friends on a cell phone
60% send text messages daily
54% instant message
47% send messages daily over social network sites
46% talk to friends on a landline phone
35% spend time with friends in person daily
22% send email every day to friends

FBI is Looking for a Futurist in Residence

The FBI has a Futurists in Residence Program associated with the
Behavioral Science Unit of the FBI Academy.  The FBI is currently taking
applications for the next FIR.  The deadline for application is February
1, 2008.    If you are interested or know someone who is interested,
please contact Dr. John Jarvis, jjarvis@fbiacademy.edu for details.

SUMMARY
This is an unpaid, part-time research opportunity.   However, the FBI
does provide for necessary travel expenses.   The position is ideal for
scholars (professors and grad students) needing to conduct research.
Past FIRs have been scholars employed by other agencies and/or
universities.  The position requires a security clearance be obtained
after acceptance. 

Tons of details and an application below the fold:

25 Year Trends

The fantastic folks at the World Future Society have put out another report on the 10 major trends over the next 25 years. It is both scary and enlightening. The thinkers that postulate the large macro trends have a tendency to pick trends that put the human race in peril, and I assume in doing so hope to create a call to action. I appreciate this awareness driven change and hope that it not only continues but also shows a significant impact on the way we live and develop our lives.

IBM Lists Next 5 Trends

IBM released their take on the next 5 big innovations. They website has a number of report links at the bottom with  research on the trends but what is interesting is that I did not seem to see them tied together in any way. I am real disappointed that they did not take a few of the major issues facing the world and overtly showcase how any one or combination of trends would make an impact on them. Health care, global warming, aging populations, water shortages are all major global concerns that are easily tied into the Next 5 but I believe that IBM did not want to go to far out on the limb to showcase the great impact that these advances could have.

The Future of Futureology

I have been sitting on this blog post for a bit watching the other futurists talk about it and its ramifications. When a deputy editor at the Economist Robert Cottrell slams your profession professionals seem to take exception. The study of the future is not a precise one, instead it is a vision of possibilities and potential outcomes to be used in preparation and preplanning. Trend analysis and extrapolated thinking are of infinite value when done by a trained and insightful professional. Future studies and the tool kit for future studies is even evolving, and the practitioners are refining their techniques. As our environment changes the possibilities of the future change as well. Societal advents, technology break through all radically impact future scenarios. Long term scenarios must be updated frequently, which is why the classic 'flying car' adage from the 50's is such a thorn in our side - it was wishful thinking and a designer's dream. But the Electric car is another story!

Jamais Cascio of Open The Future has a fantastic line by line analysis of the offending article and I suggest that you read it in depth. His thoughts are precise and his refutations even handed.

Michele Bowman at Fringehog has another very well though out response to the article and I agree with her assessment of the dangers of lambasting an entire field of thought. As we begin to open our eyes to longer term possibilities, as the me generation begins to think beyond their own existence, those who think big, think long term, will be the ones to help the rest vision a better world and then act towards it.

World Future Society 2007 and 2008 trends

The World Future Society has compiled their 2007 and 2008 trends into great U-Tube videos. I have embedded them below. They are eye opening and provide a real sense of long term view and long term importance of considering ecological impacts on business and our lives.