Community Mobilization

ARM Loan Distribution

Below is a chart showing the distribution of ARM (Adjustable Rate Morgtages) based on the type of buyer rating. It is a powerful graphic to help you understand who was getting what kind of loan. If you take time you get to see what kinds of borrowers got 'teaser introductory rates' that reset within a matter of months, and who were getting the 5 year ARM loans ideal for refinancing a home you intend to sell before the rates reset.

ARM loans are great tools for shorter term situations and there is little else I can add to the swirling conversation going on right now. However any futures systems thinker could have looked at this graphic with a quality legend and told you that this is bad news. A futurist could have looked at the indicators and drawn up only a select few scenarios in which this lending profile was sustainable. Hopefully organizations and institutions will implement a bit more foresight particularly when a potential end scenario is mass repossession and eviction of homeowner.

New Advertising Message from the American Cancer Society

The American Cancer Society is delivering a new kind of message, and it is stressing the importance of health care coverage and access for all Americans. A-List blog site Daily Kos has picked up on this bit of news and is trumpeting the call for reform and action on the health care front. A complete article in the New York Times examines this campaign with the Society's CEO Dr. John R. Seffrin who said “I believe, if we don’t fix the health care system, that lack of access will be a bigger cancer killer than tobacco,”. One of the most telling stories is that regardless of the fact that incomes are rising the US Census Bureau reports that the uninsured rate is increasing. It is a brave step to make the point that even if we increase awareness, and detection that without access to care all prior activities are a moot point.

The Debate on Virtual World Economics Continues

In a recent Blog Post, Linden Lab, the owners and operators of Second Life set out their position on the economic maintenance of Lindex market as well as the economy of SL. In short - their goal is to maintain economic stability and currency valuation near L$270 : $1.00 as they can.This is a fair endeavor, but some residents are questioning the greater regulation banking practices in the wake of a Ginko Financial's folding. Even the Economist is waiting to see how this all works itself out.

The resident quandary is can Linden Lab pick and choose the regulatory issues it gets involved in? It is under pressure to remove all casinos from the space and residents are wondering at what point does Linden Lab become more of a governance structure than a simple purveyor of a digital platform. We wonder if government pressure - international government pressers - will force their hand to regulate banking on Second Life, or will it roll over and simply outlaw currency trading sending all transactions underground like other systems.

Future of Work

Business Week has a number of articles on the future of work recently.1 2 3.  I got me thinking back to a presentation I did about a year ago for a Division Board of Directors on the future of work. In the presentation I laid out the differentiating features of Knowledge work and set a long term realm of possibilities for the future of knowledge work. Technological advances have really created an environment ripe for mobile and off site workers. Moreover the upcoming generation is steeped in technology know-how, and the keyboard and phone are the preferred input devices over the pen and paper.

The workforcre will drive the future of work, but the future of management is more important. How will a 20th century management structure integrate a 21st century workforce? How will cities adjust to the new reality? A 21st century workforce is distributed all over the world because talented people will live where they want to live and work for whom they want to work. Drivers such as health care, cost of living, diminishing cost of broadband access, wireless technology, and mobile computing are changing the self employment landscape for many.  Below is a mind map of the drivers and outcomes of the knowledge workforce. Download end_of_the_workplace.jpg

Youth Engagement

Yesterday was the kick off event to our very first Teen Grid SL Relay For Life. Working with a fantastic organization called Global Kids we are empowering teens involved in SL to create their own Relay experience. I am so excited that the youth on the teen grid have the energy and the desire to put something together. When I was talking with them I head a lot of personal stories about grandparents passing away from Cancer and their desire to help others. It really made me excited to think that the teens are ready to advocate, and run awareness about cancer in their own world, in their own way. This should be very interesting!

Financial Markets in SL seem shaky

MIT Technology Review is reporting that some of the financial institutions in SL are undergoing certain scrutiny as other seem to be falling on hard times. It appears that SL banks have been offering astronomical interest rates to their depositors, rates that they themselves can not keep up with... approaching 45% per year. One large concern is transparency. Although many residents think that banking with on the Linden Lab owned Lindex is giving into the man, it seems that the Lindex has helped maintain currency value and provide reliable transactions. Although not a lending institution, the Lindex goes out of its way to keep consistency in an otherwise chaotic financial realm. It may be unpopular but it may be the safest bet in town.

Harvard Physicians as a Social Network for the Public

it appears that the  Harvard Health Publications is teaming with online networking site Gather.com to connect consumers with Harvard docs online. So it seems that soon everyone will have access to a Harvard Doctor. The WSJ article 'Right Click for Harvard Docs' asks the questions regarding liability, and community created content. These are central concerns when dealing with critical and sensitive health information. One of the pieces no touched on was HIPAA, a notorious sticky point for physician records. I look forward to see the usage of the space, and the first law suit. I bet they have Harvard Lawyers keeping them in line.

Philanthropy Centric Video Games and Courses

The Wall Street Journal writes that join endeavors are developing video games to help students learn about not for profit management. In a collaboration with JP Morgan, Do Something is creating a video game aimed at Middle and High School kids to teach them about being philanthropic. The aim is to develop a generation of those willing and happy to give back time and money to their community and causes they care about. As a matter of fact over 125 universities have classes aimed at educating their students about the business aspects of running and managing philanthropies. Universities like Colgate and Mary Washington University have programs aimed at cultivating the future philanthropic executives.

Paul Safo's HBR article on Forecasting

I really enjoyed reading Paul Safo's article 'Six Rules of Effective Forecasting'. It is worth reading mainly because it broke down the basic tenets of good forecasting into easy to understand pieces. Forecasting, Scenario Planning, Implications Wheels, Back Casting and the other tools of the professional futurist are often misunderstood by a lot of people we work with. This article shows that the basic premise is that we take holistic views and wide observations of situations, actively seeking out extreme possibilities and asking 'what if'. In doing forecasts Futurists bring into perspective the range of possible outcomes and directions. More importantly we develop strategic directives to help organizations move towards certain outcomes while avoiding others.

New York Time on Second Life Philanthropy

The New York Times so kindly quoted me in today's article Foundation With Real Money Venture Into Virtual Worlds. It discusses the upcoming interview with Philip Rosedale and the head of the MacArthur Foundation. I am very excited to see what they have in store. I know that we are all collaborating on a special project with Global Kids that is yet to be released or named.  I really am looking forward to seeing how things develop in the community as more foundations introduce funding for special interest projects that are community focused and not industry focused.